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Der Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), auch Weltklimarat, ist eine Institution der Vereinten Nationen mit aktuell 195 Mitgliedsländern. Seit der Gründung 1988 werden im Abstand von durchschnittlich sechs Jahren ausführliche Sachstandsberichte zum Klimawandel und zusätzlich Sonderberichte veröffentlicht. Das Kernteam von knapp 280 Autorinnen und Autoren aus 65 Ländern wertete mehr als 18.000 Studien für den aktuell sechsten Sachstandsbericht zum Thema aus. In drei Teilen („Naturwissenschaftliche Grundlagen des Klimawandels“, „Folgen des Klimawandels, Anpassung und Verwundbarkeit“ sowie „Minderung des Klimawandels“) über einen mehrmonatigen Zeitraum von 2021 bis 2022 wurden die Ergebnisse vorgestellt. Für den Synthesebericht wurden auch die Sonderberichte „1,5°C globale Erwärmung“, „Ozean und Kryosphäre“ sowie „Klimawandel und Landsysteme“ hinzugezogen.
Im Synthesebericht werden eigene Akzente gesetzt: Der Klimawandel hat sich nicht nur beschleunigt, sondern die Geschwindigkeit wird in Zukunft vermutlich erhöht. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, die globale Erwärmung von 1,5°C langfristig zu überschreiten, ist im Vergleich zum 1,5°C -Sonderbericht von 2018 bereits gestiegen.
Um eine lebenswerte Zukunft für alle Menschen auf dieser Welt zu ermöglichen und die globale Erwärmung auf 1,5°C zu begrenzen, müssen sofortige und drastische Minderungen der Treibhausgasemissionen erfolgen. Global müssen die Treibhausgasemissionen ihren Scheitelpunkt schon im nächsten Jahr erreichen und bereits bis 2030 im Vergleich zum heutigen Niveau fast halbiert werden, also in nur sieben Jahren. Die CO2-Emissionen müssen bis 2050 sogar auf Netto-Null sinken.
Quelle: IPCC AR6 Synthesebericht 2023 Auszug Figure 1
Die 10 % der Haushalte mit den global höchsten Pro-Kopf-Emissionen verursachen 34-45 % der weltweiten Treibhausgasemissionen, während die unteren 50 % nur 13-15 % zu den Gesamtemissionen beitragen.
Durch nachfrageorientierte Maßnahmen (insbesondere in den Bereichen Gebäude, Verkehr und Ernährung) können die gesamten THG-Emissionen bis 2050 um 40-70 % senken.
Alle verfügbaren Klimaschutzmaßnahmen sind möglichst schnell umzusetzen, denn bereits jede weitere geringfügige Erhöhung der globalen Mitteltemperatur erhöht auch die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit einer Vielzahl von Risiken für Mensch und Umwelt. Jede Tonne an Treibausgasemissionen zählt.
CO2 nachträglich wieder aus der Atmosphäre zu entfernen, ist im Vergleich zu anderen Maßnahmen, mit viel höheren Kosten sowie außerdem einer Reihe von Risiken verbunden und kein Ersatz für sofortige, tiefgreifende und nachhaltige Emissionsminderungen. Wenn die Erwärmung 1,5 °C überschreitet, drohen neben den bereits erwähnten irreversiblen Schäden auch Rückkopplungs-Mechanismen („Feedback-Effects“), die vom Klimawandel ausgelöst werden, diesen aber auch wiederum weiter verstärken (z. B. großflächige Waldbrände, Absterben des Amazonas-Regenwaldes, Auftauen von Permafrostböden, mit einer immensen Freisetzung von Methan).
Wenn der Klimaschutz weniger ambitioniert ausfällt, werden Klimarisiken stärker zunehmen, mit Extremereignissen (Hitzewellen, Dürren und Starkniederschläge, sowohl global als auch regional). Die Effektivität von Anpassungsmaßnahmen verringert sich bei höheren Erwärmungsniveaus. Klimarisiken und Anpassungsmaßnahmen müssen mit weiteren gesellschaftlichen Entwicklungen erfolgen, z. B. veränderte Landnutzung, wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, Lebensstile und Konsumverhalten.
Ökosystembasierte Anpassung ist sehr wichtig, wie Moorschutz oder Renaturierung von Flüssen. Diese Maßnahmen verbinden idealerweise Klimaanpassung und Klimaschutz: Sie wirken als Kohlenstoffsenken und machen Ökosysteme resilient gegenüber dem Klimawandel.
In einigen Regionen und Sektoren können auch Grenzen der Anpassung für Ökosysteme und Gesellschaften erreicht werden, insbesondere bei starkem Klimawandel. Deswegen ist sofortiges Handeln ist entscheidend.
Die jetzt getroffenen Entscheidungen und Maßnahmen, werden sich über Tausende von Jahren auswirken. Die Minderung der Treibhausgasemissionen mit den derzeitigen Bemühungen, würden in den nächsten 70 Jahren auf eine 3,2 °C wärmere Welt hinauslaufen, mit katastrophalen Folgen für Mensch und Umwelt und reichen bei weitem nicht aus. Alle sind jetzt gefordert, besonders die wohlhabenden Teilen der Welt, jetzt einen Entwicklungspfad einzuschlagen der konsequent an Klimaschutz ausgerichtetet ist, mit all seinen Herausforderungen aber auch Chancen für eine gerechtere Welt. Wenn die globalen Treibhausgasemissionen nicht sofort, schnell und in großem Umfang reduziert werden, wird es nicht mehr möglich sein, die globale Erwärmung auf 1,5 °C oder sogar auf 2 °C zu begrenzen und damit eine lebenswerte und nachhaltige Zukunft für alle zu sichern.
Zur Einhaltung von 1,5° bzw. 2° müssen schnelle umfangreiche Maßnahmen zur Treibhausgas- Reduktion ergriffen werden
Quelle: IPCC AR6 Synthesebericht 2023
Potenziale für weltweite Klimaschutzmaßnahmen und -technologien sowie Klimawandelanpassungsoptionen
Quelle: IPCC AR6 Synthesebericht 2023
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